Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
26 0x261a…90bd other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$14
politics 22% −$7
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
sports 2% +$22
world 2% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 +5.4% -4.6% 13% 8% -9.5%
all 107 +5.4% -4.6% 13% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 8% -9.5%
10% -13.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -22.1% 8% -26.1%
20% -29.7% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage88d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $127 +$0 (+0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 59¢ 58¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $383 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $141 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $325 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $551 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $278 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $263 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $263 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $270 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $291 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $288 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 07 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 04 $289 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $541 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $274 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $293 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $272 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 28 $273 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $267 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $296 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $277 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $288 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $852 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $294 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $495 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $509 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $758 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $11 8h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $127 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 14d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 16d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.67 · official $137.67 (match) · 319 history records