Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x261a…0d3e other 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%9W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$8
politics 31% −$5
sports 10% +$37
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 106 -1.7% -11.1% 6% 5% -9.6%
all 114 +2.9% -6.9% 8% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 7% -9.4%
10% -15.8% 5% -18.1%
15% -23.9% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.4% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×13.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 105
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage108d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Bucks vs. Clippers Bucks 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Mavericks 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Thunder Pistons 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Nets Nets 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Thunder Warriors 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mavericks 47¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 81¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Hawks Mavericks 22¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $132 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $144 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $129 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $424 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $133 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $141 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $144 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $124 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $99 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $237 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $140 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $102 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $136 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $134 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $134 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $102 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $132 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $131 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $140 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 8m
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 2h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 10h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 24h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $19 6d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $19 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $130 15d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $130 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $132 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $132 22d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $144 23d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $144 23d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $129 23d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $129 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $128 25d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $128 25d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $97 28d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $97 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $114 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $114 30d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $127 31d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $127 32d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $133 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.99 · official $18.99 (match) · 307 history records