Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x261d…4918 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate80%24W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$1
finance 25% −$1
crypto 4% $0
weather 1% −$2
world 1% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.3% -18.9% 50% 12% -9.8%
≤30d 30 -2.3% -11.6% 80% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 30 -2.3% -11.6% 80% 3% -9.7%
all 30 -2.3% -11.6% 80% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses24 / 6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)30 / 41
History coverage23d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $344 $344 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 23 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during UFC 250? Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 21 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? Jun 18 $226 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 15 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Other Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 6? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 05 $231 $0 -0%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 3? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 3? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 1? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Asshole" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $344 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $346 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $347 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $346 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $120 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $226 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $226 4d
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during UFC 250? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY No 87¢ $1 6d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $226 6d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $2 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $224 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $224 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 8d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3 8d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 8d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 8d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 8d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $234 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 15d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $2 15d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $238 15d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $231 15d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $231 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $385.14 · official $385.14 (match) · 96 history records