Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2623…3cd2 crypto 175 markets active 4h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (232 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,076 (+14%) realized +$5,076 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%52W / 123L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day231.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (232 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +35.6% +22.6% 32% 31% -12.1%
≤30d 175 +26.2% +14.2% 30% 29% -28.3%
≤90d 175 +26.2% +14.2% 30% 29% -28.3%
all 175 +26.2% +14.2% 30% 29% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover231.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.2% 29% -28.3%
10% ← realistic here +3.2% 26% -35.1%
15% -6.7% 23% -41.4%
20% -15.9% 16% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$145 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,076
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses52 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day231.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET Jun 29 $43 +$16 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $44 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $79 −$29 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET Jun 28 $184 −$18 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$10 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$13 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$56 +2400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$94 +4900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$15 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7PM ET Jun 27 $0 +$1 +300%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $7 +$30 +427%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$3 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $29 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $41 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $47 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $37 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $45 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $33 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $33 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $28 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records