Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2627…b60a world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$4
other 13% $0
sports 8% $0
politics 2% −$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 11 -9.7% -18.3% 9% 0% -10.5%
all 21 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -12.1%
10% -27.0% 0% -20.5%
15% -34.0% 0% -28.2%
20% -40.5% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage465d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $60 −$2 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $65 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $11 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $41 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $38 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $47 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Lautaro Martínez win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 26 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 -27%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 15 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $46 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $48 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $24 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $23 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $23 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $4 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $40 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $17 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $23 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $29 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $10 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $7 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $11 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $18 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $18 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 68¢ $42 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $49 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records