Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
26 0x2628…2463 world 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$847 (-43%) realized −$846 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$6
other 25% −$485
sports 18% −$356
politics 11% −$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -50.5% -55.2% 0% 0% -55.0%
≤90d 8 -50.1% -54.9% 12% 0% -54.1%
all 10 -50.1% -54.9% 10% 0% -54.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.9% 0% -54.3%
10% -59.2% 0% -58.7%
15% -63.1% 0% -62.7%
20% -66.8% 0% -66.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$121 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$846
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage100d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $243 $243 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 02 $486 −$485 -100%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $491 −$5 -1%
Spread: CD Huachipato (-2.5) May 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? May 17 $52 $0 +0%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) Apr 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) Apr 20 $38 −$38 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $84 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu Mar 21 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 21 $210 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $243 1h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? BUY No 92¢ $486 27d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $486 27d
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $491 27d
Spread: CD Huachipato (-2.5) BUY CD Huachipato $27 43d
Spread: CD Huachipato (-2.5) BUY CD Huachipato $33 43d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes $10 43d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes $12 43d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes $12 43d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes $3 43d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? SELL Yes $14 43d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? BUY Yes $14 43d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? BUY Yes $12 43d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? BUY Yes $14 43d
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? BUY Yes $12 43d
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) BUY RCD Mallorca $25 69d
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-2.5) BUY RCD Mallorca $24 69d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr SELL Yes $0 69d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr SELL Yes $17 69d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr SELL Yes $17 69d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr BUY Yes $17 69d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr BUY Yes $17 69d
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) BUY West Ham United FC $19 70d
Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) BUY West Ham United FC $19 70d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $41 70d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $43 70d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $42 70d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $42 70d
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu BUY Arcade Esports 34¢ $102 100d
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu BUY Arcade Esports 34¢ $107 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.84 · official $242.84 (match) · 32 history records