Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x2629…15e1
other · 51 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses29 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage462d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 0 History 51 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $38 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $40 −$3 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31? May 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? May 13 $1 $0 -17%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? May 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on May 7? May 07 $12 +$1 +6%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? May 06 $1 $0 +12%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $13 $0 +2%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $11 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 06 $12 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 14? Mar 14 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% −$2
other 16% +$2
crypto 11% +$1
politics 10% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 5% −$3
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 7m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 7m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $38 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $38 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 25h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $35 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $9 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $12 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $37 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $40 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $13 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $27 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $40 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 0% -10.0%
all 51 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -9.7%
10% -17.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records