Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:53:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x262d…33dd sports 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,404 (+4%) realized +$1,406 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%156W / 98L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$191
7 days−$63
14 days−$0
30 days+$289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,049
other 2% +$224
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.2% -8.5% 70% 70% -11.5%
≤30d 42 -3.1% -12.3% 67% 64% -7.0%
≤90d 127 -9.7% -18.3% 61% 59% -5.5%
all 254 -6.5% -15.4% 61% 60% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 60% -6.1%
10% -23.5% 53% -15.0%
15% -30.9% 41% -23.3%
20% -37.7% 25% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$50 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$1,406
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses156 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions3
Markets (closed)254 / 257
History coverage226d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Frances Tiafoe 73¢ 72¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Tommy Paul 63¢ 62¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 20 $73 −$73 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 20 $502 −$350 -70%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $73 +$29 +40%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $69 +$32 +47%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $503 +$107 +21%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $502 +$73 +14%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $78 +$24 +31%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $79 +$23 +29%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $81 +$20 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$42 +70%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $79 +$23 +29%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $71 +$31 +44%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $78 +$24 +31%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $106 −$4 -3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$36 +55%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $74 +$28 +38%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $241 +$59 +24%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $503 +$146 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $70 −$20 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $503 +$138 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $504 +$177 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $303 −$303 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $502 +$66 +13%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$80 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $3,314 +$242 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $503 −$55 -11%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 29 $74 −$74 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 29 $155 −$155 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $502 +$60 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $76 +$24 +32%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $78 +$22 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi May 26 $76 +$21 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $63 +$37 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $75 +$25 +34%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Alex de Minaur May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $20 +$13 +65%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $64 +$36 +57%
Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert May 19 $502 +$60 +12%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $503 +$107 +21%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $100 +$11 +11%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $3,884 +$613 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $3,545 +$340 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 14 $421 −$421 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 40¢ $20 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $65 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 73¢ $75 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 52¢ $153 18h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Alex de Minaur 71¢ $73 25h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 84¢ $502 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $503 26h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 71¢ $73 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 87¢ $502 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 77¢ $79 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $81 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 76¢ $78 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 67¢ $69 2d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 74¢ $76 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 69¢ $71 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 77¢ $79 3d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 76¢ $78 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $66 4d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 43¢ $45 5d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $106 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 6d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 72¢ $74 6d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $241 7d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 77¢ $15 8d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $15 8d
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $73 8d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 69¢ $70 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $503 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.72 · official $155.72 (match) · 526 history records