Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
26 0x262e…d4a3 world 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$24 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$17
other 30% +$47
finance 21% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +49.0% +34.8% 100% 100% +34.8%
≤30d 4 +75.2% +58.5% 100% 100% +77.7%
≤90d 9 -7.0% -15.8% 56% 56% +13.6%
all 9 -7.0% -15.8% 56% 56% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 56% +13.6%
10% -23.9% 56% +2.7%
15% -31.2% 56% -7.2%
20% -38.0% 22% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage55d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+38%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 74¢ 44¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 82¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 42¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 27¢ 11¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $25 +$38 +154%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 03 $10 +$4 +37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 36¢ $5 31h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 31h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $5 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $20 5d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $63 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $10 29d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $10 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 35d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $14 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 44d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 52d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 63¢ $10 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $10 53d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 73¢ $10 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.87 · official $75.14 (match) · 63 history records