Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:59:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x262f…2198 weather 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$442 (-15%) realized −$426 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate76%28W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$165
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% −$179
sports 45% −$256
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.8% -13.0% 70% 50% -35.4%
≤30d 11 -2.8% -12.1% 73% 45% -33.5%
≤90d 29 -8.5% -17.2% 72% 38% -34.8%
all 37 -8.0% -16.7% 76% 35% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 35% -22.8%
10% -24.7% 16% -30.2%
15% -32.0% 3% -37.0%
20% -38.6% 0% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$64 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$426
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses28 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage149d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? No 95¢ 65¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $50 −$48 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$12 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $187 −$159 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $38 +$12 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26? Jun 17 $36 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $30 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 24? May 24 $41 −$10 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 11? May 11 $45 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 10? May 10 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 14? Apr 15 $40 +$3 +8%
Rockets vs. Bulls Apr 15 $259 −$259 -100%
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? Apr 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C or higher on February 1 Apr 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 4? Apr 04 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 1? Apr 03 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30? Mar 31 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 29? Mar 30 $27 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29? Mar 29 $51 −$25 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28? Mar 28 $53 +$12 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 28? Mar 28 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on March 28? Mar 28 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on March 27? Mar 27 $43 +$8 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on March 26? Mar 26 $34 +$9 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 23? Mar 23 $201 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 22? Mar 23 $32 +$2 +5%
Wizards vs. Heat Mar 22 $31 +$1 +2%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on February 27? Feb 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on February 19? Feb 20 $30 +$8 +28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 14? Feb 17 $12 $0 +2%
Nuggets vs. Bulls Feb 08 $1,030 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $14 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL No 4¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $112 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 85¢ $50 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $101 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $38 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 76¢ $45 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $55 25h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 66¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $50 26h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 90¢ $50 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? SELL No 13¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $86 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 79¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $38 7d
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26? BUY No 93¢ $36 29d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on May 24? SELL No 100¢ $36 30d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 84¢ $30 31d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 24? SELL No 68¢ $31 31d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on May 24? BUY No 90¢ $41 31d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 11? SELL No 100¢ $51 44d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 11? BUY No 87¢ $45 44d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 10? SELL No 100¢ $45 44d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 10? BUY No 96¢ $43 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.12 · official $32.81 · 77 history records