Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2632…6475 crypto 525 markets active 2d ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-4%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%300W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$43
14 days−$95
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$88
weather 26% −$60
sports 16% −$36
other 5% −$86
politics 5% −$17
world 4% −$21
finance 1% −$8
culture 0% −$4
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 43% -16.7%
≤30d 160 -2.1% -11.4% 51% 43% -16.1%
≤90d 525 -3.7% -12.9% 57% 46% -16.0%
all 525 -3.7% -12.9% 57% 46% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 46% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 31% -24.1%
15% -28.8% 21% -31.4%
20% -35.8% 14% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses300 / 225
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)525 / 525
History coverage58d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 525 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $33 −$15 -47%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$12 +79%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $18 +$8 +41%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $4 −$1 -14%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $32 −$26 -82%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $34 −$21 -61%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $81 +$19 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $51 −$40 -79%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $13 −$3 -25%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $31 +$19 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $30 +$30 +101%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$5 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Nada Fouad Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$8 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $17 +$18 +106%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 −$10 -66%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $12 +$3 +23%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $7 +$5 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $31 −$10 -34%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Andrej Martin Jun 10 $19 −$7 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $14 −$14 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $22 $0 -1%
ITF Sumter: Kristina Liutova vs Reese Brantmeier Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $7 −$7 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $27 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson SELL Laura Samson 95¢ $15 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 68¢ $11 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson SELL Kaitlin Quevedo 38¢ $11 4d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 25¢ $7 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets SELL New York Mets 42¢ $4 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Minnesota Twins $6 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 47¢ $4 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Minnesota Twins 31¢ $32 5d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova SELL Hernan Casanova $13 5d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 22¢ $34 5d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Dayana Yastremska 70¢ $56 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 53¢ $44 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 27¢ $32 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Ajla Tomljanovic 33¢ $12 6d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 23¢ $37 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 54¢ $41 6d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 29¢ $21 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Sho Shimabukuro 38¢ $20 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Sho Shimabukuro 19¢ $10 6d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 27¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth SELL Jiri Lehecka 88¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1460 history records