Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
26 0x2637…26e1 world 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,772 (+12%) realized +$9,393 · open +$379
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%77W / 55L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$578per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5,350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,787
7 days+$2,391
14 days+$1,125
30 days+$5,609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$4,662
sports 15% +$1,506
politics 6% +$1,778
other 3% −$375
crypto 1% +$1,961
finance 1% −$156
tech 1% +$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +19.1% +7.7% 57% 50% +0.3%
≤30d 75 +3.4% -6.5% 55% 48% +1.3%
≤90d 132 +7.6% -2.6% 58% 48% +1.6%
all 132 +7.6% -2.6% 58% 48% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 48% +1.6%
10% -11.9% 37% -8.1%
15% ← realistic here -20.4% 27% -17.0%
20% -28.2% 23% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$842) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$254 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$5,350
Realized+$9,393
Unrealized+$379
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses77 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions14
Markets (closed)132 / 146
History coverage61d
Avg bet$578
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 94¢ $678 $942 +$264 (+39%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 62¢ 94¢ $620 $938 +$318 (+51%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 59¢ 86¢ $500 $732 +$232 (+46%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 54¢ 94¢ $326 $567 +$241 (+74%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $458 $484 +$26 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $348 $395 +$46 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $338 $265 −$73 (-22%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 44¢ 46¢ $220 $228 +$8 (+4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 47¢ 39¢ $235 $195 −$40 (-17%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $500 $191 −$309 (-62%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $198 $158 −$40 (-20%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $285 $106 −$180 (-63%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $216 $99 −$117 (-54%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $64 +$7 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $182 +$118 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $880 +$1,111 +126%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,134 +$2,632 +123%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $478 +$119 +25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $601 −$514 -86%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $526 +$315 +60%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $500 +$308 +62%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $205 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $200 +$413 +206%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $53 −$44 -83%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $161 +$24 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $396 −$313 -79%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $1,817 +$402 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,930 −$1,691 -88%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2,930 −$304 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $2,656 −$896 -34%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $1,153 +$47 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $750 −$430 -57%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $250 −$155 -62%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $229 −$108 -47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $489 −$108 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $289 +$945 +327%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 13 $649 −$15 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $480 +$320 +67%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $147 −$53 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,123 +$159 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $846 +$101 +12%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $72 +$16 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $333 +$139 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $697 +$328 +47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $266 +$30 +11%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 05 $462 −$406 -88%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals Jun 05 $178 −$178 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 05 $197 −$197 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,103 −$903 -82%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $412 −$97 -24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1,032 +$1,961 +190%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $412 +$93 +22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $1,252 +$165 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $922 +$578 +63%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,165 +$559 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $192 +$16 +8%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $887 −$81 -9%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $2,343 −$1,124 -48%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $1,787 +$205 +12%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 29 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May? May 29 $27 −$27 -100%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 29 $145 −$144 -99%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 29 $579 −$319 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 44¢ $220 43m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $235 44m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 14¢ $47 54m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 15¢ $11 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 15¢ $14 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 60¢ $222 59m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 60¢ $78 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 53¢ $265 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 13¢ $64 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $204 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $56 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $0 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $111 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $60 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,991 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $4,104 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $182 15h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $597 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $86 39h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $841 40h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $234 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 47h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $143 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $26 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $39 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $300 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $205 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,350.29 · official $5,342.06 (match) · 1668 history records