Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
26 0x2638…09a8 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,543 (-10%) realized −$3,544 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate78%40W / 11L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$679per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$679
14 days+$1,165
30 days−$3,835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$3,924
sports 39% +$233
politics 5% +$4
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.1% -5.0% 62% 54% +4.7%
≤30d 24 -12.5% -20.9% 54% 42% -34.1%
≤90d 36 -8.3% -17.0% 69% 28% -19.3%
all 51 +1.9% -7.8% 78% 39% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 39% -18.6%
10% -16.6% 27% -26.4%
15% -24.7% 20% -33.5%
20% -32.1% 12% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,204) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$503 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$3,544
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses40 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage279d
Avg bet$679
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$53 +104%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$121 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,053 +$101 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,204 +$130 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 +$210 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $805 +$195 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $629 +$300 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$9 -16%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-21? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win on 2025-10-13? May 31 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5,091 −$5,091 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $405 +$317 +78%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 27 $1,049 +$2 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? May 16 $230 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2025-10-12? Oct 13 $125 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-10-12? Oct 12 $114 +$11 +10%
Will Spain win on 2025-10-11? Oct 12 $97 +$14 +15%
Will France win on 2025-10-10? Oct 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-04? Oct 05 $1 $0 +22%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-01? Oct 04 $1 +$1 +82%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 04 $145 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 01 $146 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28? Sep 29 $25 +$7 +30%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26? Sep 27 $50 +$6 +12%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-09-25? Sep 26 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-25? Sep 26 $19 +$4 +22%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23? Sep 24 $99 +$33 +33%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-22? Sep 23 $74 +$25 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $105 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $41 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,004 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,053 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,204 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $805 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $929 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $629 10d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $43 10d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 10d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 100¢ $600 23d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5,091 27d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $484 29d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $8 29d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $1,506 29d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $2 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.94 · official $250.94 (match) · 155 history records