Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x263a…e59e
world · 33 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$24 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage521d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $12 −$3 -23%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $61 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $35 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $67 −$3 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $31 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $31 +$2 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $818 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $79 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 12 $78 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $34 −$1 -3%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $265 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 31 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $16 −$1 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $92 $0 +0%
Stetson vs. Lipscomb Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Viktoria Plzen beat Ferencvaros? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 31 - Feb 7? Feb 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Feb 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31? Feb 06 $1 +$8 +694%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 23 $11 −$3 -23%
Will Jeremiah Smith NOT score a touchdown AND Quinn Ewers throw an int Jan 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% −$7
politics 22% −$3
other 8% −$10
sports 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $9 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $12 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 23h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $22 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $25 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 93¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $16 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $30 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $31 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $3 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.1% -13.2% 33% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 18 -7.3% -16.1% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 25 -5.5% -14.5% 28% 0% -9.9%
all 32 +4.1% -5.8% 25% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 3% -10.5%
10% -14.8% 3% -19.1%
15% -23.0% 3% -26.9%
20% -30.6% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records