Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
26 0x263b…f071 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+8%) realized +$34 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$55
sports 34% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +49.2% +35.0% 42% 42% -0.7%
≤30d 12 +49.2% +35.0% 42% 42% -0.7%
≤90d 12 +49.2% +35.0% 42% 42% -0.7%
all 12 +49.2% +35.0% 42% 42% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.0% 42% -0.7%
10% +22.1% 42% -10.2%
15% +10.3% 42% -18.9%
20% -0.5% 33% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +126% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +339%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$29 +562%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$20 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 22 history records