Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x263e…c4bc
crypto · 15 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$268 -57%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$266 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$58
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage132d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 3 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? Feb 14 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15? Feb 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Feb 12 $20 −$9 -46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 11 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 8? Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 7? Feb 07 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2? Feb 02 $30 +$15 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 55% −$202
crypto 34% −$47
politics 6% +$1
sports 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $21 5d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on February 1 BUY Yes 40¢ $30 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? SELL Down 5¢ $2 119d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? BUY Down 47¢ $20 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15? SELL Yes 62¢ $21 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 9-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 121d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL No 10¢ $11 121d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 SELL Yes 83¢ $29 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 1 BUY Yes 58¢ $20 122d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 8? BUY Down 41¢ $10 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 7? SELL Down 86¢ $17 126d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 7? BUY Down 51¢ $10 127d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $100 129d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 19¢ $20 129d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $85 131d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $15 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2? BUY Up 72¢ $10 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2? BUY Up 68¢ $10 131d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 2? BUY Up 62¢ $10 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 132d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 12 -30.7% -37.3% 42% 33% -68.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 33% -68.2%
10% -43.3% 33% -71.2%
15% -48.8% 33% -74.0%
20% -53.8% 17% -76.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.59 · official $57.59 (match) · 35 history records