Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2640…97d2 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$162 (-17%) realized −$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$2
14 days−$76
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$79
sports 22% +$13
world 14% −$29
politics 1% −$10
tech 1% −$11
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -46.9% -52.0% 40% 40% -10.4%
≤30d 31 -26.2% -33.3% 42% 35% -22.0%
≤90d 35 -29.9% -36.6% 40% 34% -23.6%
all 56 -24.0% -31.3% 45% 39% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 39% -22.3%
10% -37.8% 38% -29.7%
15% -43.8% 29% -36.5%
20% -49.4% 20% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage156d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $91 +$33 +36%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $78 +$22 +29%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $74 −$2 -3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$4 -74%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 −$4 -62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 +$3 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$8 +115%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$10 +109%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 +$7 +43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$3 -42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$5 +96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $20 −$12 -61%
Rockets vs. Suns May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $48 +$32 +67%
Hornets vs. Rockets Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 09 $15 +$5 +30%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Feb 06 $7 +$3 +39%
Grizzlies vs. Kings Feb 05 $4 +$6 +150%
Cavaliers vs. Clippers Feb 05 $6 +$3 +54%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Feb 04 $7 +$8 +122%
Hawks vs. Heat Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Warriors Feb 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Feb 04 $3 +$1 +46%
Lakers vs. Nets Feb 04 $4 +$1 +31%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 03 $3 +$2 +72%
Pacers vs. Celtics Feb 03 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? Feb 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 11m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 30m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 30m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $78 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $84 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $48 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $47 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 7d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $71 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $1 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $2 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $6 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $55 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $65 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $64 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $62 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 5¢ $0 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 46¢ $5 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 3¢ $0 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.02 · official $96.02 (match) · 134 history records