Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2642…f675 crypto 1440 markets active 4d ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$111 (-1%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%451W / 989L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day94.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$46
14 days−$515
30 days−$524
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$524
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -28.9% -35.7% 12% 12% -32.8%
≤30d 1440 -5.9% -14.8% 31% 31% -11.7%
≤90d 1440 -5.9% -14.8% 31% 31% -11.7%
all 1440 -5.9% -14.8% 31% 31% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 31% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 31% -20.1%
15% -30.4% 31% -27.9%
20% -37.3% 29% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses451 / 989
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1440 / 1440
History coverage23d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day94.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1440 Trades
no open positions (445 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +252%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$9 +374%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +280%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$7 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$6 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.39 · official $10.39 (match) · 2599 history records