Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
26 0x2642…4801 crypto 2180 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate66%1230W / 629L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day97.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$352
7 days−$170
14 days+$188
30 days+$744
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 606 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 47% -19.7%
≤30d 1859 +15.4% +4.4% 66% 65% +5.4%
≤90d 1859 +15.4% +4.4% 66% 65% +5.4%
all 1859 +15.4% +4.4% 66% 65% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.4% 65% +5.4%
10% ← realistic here -5.6% 62% -4.7%
15% -14.7% 56% -13.9%
20% -23.1% 49% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1230 / 629
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1859 / 2180
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day97.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1859 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records