Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
26 0x2642…bfc4 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$2,660 (+49%) realized +$2,660 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$210
7 days−$210
14 days−$530
30 days+$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,514
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+51.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 13 -34.4% -40.7% 23% 23% +12.3%
≤90d 43 +67.8% +51.9% 40% 37% +36.1%
all 43 +67.8% +51.9% 40% 37% +36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.9% 37% +36.1%
10% +37.3% 37% +23.1%
15% +24.1% 35% +11.2%
20% +11.9% 33% +0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +88% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$279 vs −$86 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,660
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage90d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $143 −$140 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $623 +$475 +76%
Modena: Giorgia Pedone vs Mayar Sherif Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $173 −$173 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 28 $231 +$435 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $206 +$594 +288%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $58 −$58 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $185 −$185 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Barbora Krejcikova May 24 $130 +$335 +258%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Yasmine Kabbaj May 21 $310 +$720 +232%
Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen May 20 $90 −$90 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lilli Tagger vs Maria Sakkari May 08 $70 +$330 +471%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova May 06 $145 +$15 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Peyton Stearns vs Janice Tjen May 06 $160 −$20 -12%
Ostrava: Jonas Forejtek vs Hynek Barton May 06 $140 +$206 +147%
Ostrava: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felix Gill May 06 $190 +$285 +150%
La Bisbal: Emiliana Arango vs Daria Kasatkina Apr 28 $178 +$42 +24%
Ostrava: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Maxim Mrva Apr 28 $170 −$170 -100%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Elena Rybakina Apr 28 $130 +$585 +450%
Madrid Open: Terence Atmane vs Alexander Zverev Apr 27 $91 $0 -0%
La Bisbal: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Anastasia Zakharova Apr 27 $119 −$119 -100%
Madrid Open: Learner Tien vs Adolfo Vallejo Apr 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Madrid Open: Mariano Navone vs Alexander Zverev Apr 25 $70 +$2 +3%
Madrid Open: Vilius Gaubas vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Apr 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Oeiras 4: Polina Kudermetova vs Whitney Osuigwe Apr 25 $145 −$10 -7%
Oeiras 4: Lucie Havlickova vs Fiona Ferro Apr 25 $175 +$186 +106%
Savannah: Andres Andrade vs Aidan Mayo Apr 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Panna Udvardy Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Oeiras 3: Valentin Royer vs Joel Schwaerzler Apr 23 $135 +$115 +85%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Andrey Rublev Apr 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper Apr 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Madrid: Joel Schwaerzler vs Roman Safiullin Apr 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Apr 06 $160 −$160 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Luca Van Assche Apr 06 $100 +$346 +346%
Sao Leopoldo: Paulo Dos Santos vs Gonzalo Bueno Mar 31 $0 +$3 +1011%
Copa Colsanitas: Valentina Mediorreal vs Tatjana Maria Mar 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Morelia: Alexis Galarneau vs Luka Pavlovic Mar 30 $35 +$65 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Panna Udvardy 28¢ $143 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva $70 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva $0 3h
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha $35 8d
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha $0 8d
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha $0 8d
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha $0 8d
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha 25¢ $125 8d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 12¢ $108 8d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 12¢ $1 8d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 12¢ $1 8d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 12¢ $4 8d
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Himeno Sakatsume 12¢ $7 8d
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Giorgia Pedone $40 9d
Modena: Giorgia Pedone vs Mayar Sherif BUY Giorgia Pedone $40 14d
Modena: Giorgia Pedone vs Mayar Sherif BUY Giorgia Pedone $0 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 85¢ $20 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 85¢ $146 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 85¢ $4 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 57¢ $14 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 57¢ $46 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 57¢ $5 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 57¢ $157 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 57¢ $3 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 57¢ $5 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher SELL Julia Grabher 40¢ $400 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher BUY Julia Grabher 32¢ $284 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher BUY Julia Grabher 32¢ $5 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher BUY Julia Grabher 32¢ $1 14d
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher BUY Julia Grabher 32¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 523 history records