Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2643…b5ea other 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 241L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$42
sports 27% −$23
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$8
economics 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage136d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $805 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $363 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $324 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $491 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $326 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $328 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $468 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $923 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $629 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $180 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $302 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $397 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $396 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $505 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $990 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $374 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $518 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $923 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $318 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $609 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 17m
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 1h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $62 9h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 10h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 19h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 20h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 21h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 23h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 30h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 40h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 42h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 43h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 44h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 46h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 47h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1406 history records