Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2644…bbce crypto 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-2%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate59%179W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day50.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$243
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 50% -12.7%
≤30d 305 -2.6% -11.9% 59% 34% -13.6%
≤90d 305 -2.6% -11.9% 59% 34% -13.6%
all 305 -2.6% -11.9% 59% 34% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 34% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 16% -21.9%
15% -28.0% 8% -29.4%
20% -35.1% 5% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses179 / 126
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage26d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day50.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$11 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1628 history records