Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2644…12f1 other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$375 (-10%) realized −$377 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%31W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$558
7 days−$433
14 days−$426
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$421
sports 13% $0
world 0% +$10
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 41% -22.1%
≤30d 69 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 45% -21.4%
≤90d 69 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 45% -21.4%
all 69 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 45% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -21.4%
10% -21.7% 42% -29.0%
15% -29.3% 41% -35.8%
20% -36.2% 38% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$35 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$377
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses31 / 38
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions22
Markets (closed)69 / 91
History coverage130d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $101 $108 +$7 (+7%)
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance Egypt 57¢ 56¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance Portugal 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Norway 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance Belgium 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 62¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance Mexico 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance Ghana 21¢ 20¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance Switzerland 66¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $3 +$3 +76%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $107 −$107 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 +$3 +105%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $24 +$15 +62%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $24 +$69 +289%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $23 +$19 +79%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $7 $0 -2%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$3 +226%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$36 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $104 +$65 +62%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 +$5 +129%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$5 +510%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $108 +$100 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $105 +$40 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $107 +$149 +140%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $508 +$222 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$79 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$4 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$3 +53%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 1h
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advance BUY Ghana 21¢ $30 1h
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advance BUY Egypt 57¢ $52 1h
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Team to Advance BUY Switzerland 66¢ $4 1h
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance BUY Portugal 68¢ $50 1h
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance BUY Belgium 61¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advance BUY Mexico 62¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 44¢ $29 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance BUY Norway 65¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 62¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $50 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 27¢ $10 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 40h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 40h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.40 · official $593.41 (match) · 199 history records