Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x264b…d232 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$6
sports 9% $0
other 7% +$1
politics 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.6% -11.8% 33% 0% -11.4%
≤30d 10 +9.4% -1.1% 60% 10% -10.2%
≤90d 13 +6.3% -3.8% 54% 8% -11.0%
all 34 +0.8% -8.8% 53% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 9% -10.3%
10% -17.5% 6% -18.9%
15% -25.5% 6% -26.8%
20% -32.8% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $58 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $50 −$2 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $25 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21 −$3 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $27 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $26 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $11 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $27 −$4 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Feb 04 $0 $0 +50%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 18 $4 $0 +11%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 18 $1 $0 -10%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Mar 15 $12 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $24 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $25 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $24 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $24 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $25 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 82¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $29 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $29 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $21 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $28 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $8 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $10 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.82 · official $26.82 (match) · 127 history records