Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
26 0x264b…cf7f sports 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$1,822 (+12%) realized +$2,485 · open −$663
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%81W / 106L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$788
7 days+$932
14 days+$1,269
30 days+$1,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$1,978
other 23% −$483
crypto 11% +$892
world 7% +$118
politics 3% −$123
finance 3% −$446
economics 1% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +11.3% +0.7% 46% 46% +8.1%
≤30d 103 +8.1% -2.2% 45% 45% +6.6%
≤90d 122 +1.4% -8.2% 40% 39% -1.5%
all 187 +23.1% +11.4% 43% 40% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 40% +8.1%
10% +0.8% 37% -2.2%
15% -9.0% 36% -11.7%
20% -17.9% 34% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$52 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$1,449
Realized+$2,485
Unrealized−$663
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses81 / 106
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions26
Markets (closed)187 / 216
History coverage196d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $250 $263 +$13 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $224 −$26 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $130 $84 −$46 (-35%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 42¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes 13¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Qatar 55¢ 52¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $47 $44 −$3 (-6%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Yes $100 $31 −$69 (-69%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 14¢ $40 $17 −$23 (-58%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? Yes $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Yes $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 14¢ $140 $3 −$137 (-98%)
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes $50 $2 −$48 (-95%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Yes $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $71 −$33 -47%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $88 +$46 +52%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$100 +100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$43 -85%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $64 +$27 +41%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$186 +363%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $204 +$248 +122%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$25 -49%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $81 +$105 +129%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 +$55 +53%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $62 +$34 +56%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $84 +$35 +42%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 −$7 -4%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $153 +$100 +65%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$117 +58%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$74 +242%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$2 -5%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$61 +60%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $111 +$89 +79%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$4 -14%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$14 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $71 +$141 +197%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$157 +307%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$42 -82%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$20 -39%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $152 +$140 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $253 +$28 +11%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$11 +22%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$49 +97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$2 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 −$8 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina v BUY $10 4h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY 38¢ $25 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY $51 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 6h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 55¢ $51 6h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 30¢ $37 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $134 10h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $88 11h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 12h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 55¢ $71 12h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia $7 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 14h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $91 14h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 37¢ $51 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $24 16h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $64 16h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 76¢ $189 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 76¢ $4 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 76¢ $2 17h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $45 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $81 28h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $51 28h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $51 28h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 39¢ $204 28h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $38 33h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 96¢ $96 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,448.95 · official $1,534.12 · 487 history records