Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x264c…0fbc world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$5
politics 21% $0
other 16% −$1
crypto 11% $0
economics 6% $0
weather 5% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.9% -10.4% 40% 20% -7.5%
≤30d 14 +5.5% -4.5% 43% 21% -7.9%
≤90d 16 +4.3% -5.7% 38% 19% -8.8%
all 40 +1.1% -8.5% 35% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 8% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 5% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage318d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $47 +$6 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $20 +$5 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $48 −$4 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $4 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $44 −$4 -9%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 18 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Aug 12 $56 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $4 $0 -4%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 82°F or below on August 12? Aug 11 $56 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $4 $0 -10%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Brian Campbell be the first round leader at the 2025 FedEx St. Ju Aug 10 $65 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 07 $1 $0 -1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 06 $66 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $52 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $47 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $29 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $8 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $9 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $12 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $10 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records