Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x2651…3471
finance · 325 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,066 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,347 · open +$405
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP finance specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$10,570
Realized−$2,347
Unrealized+$405
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses178 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions21
Markets (closed)318 / 325
Avg bet$517
Trades / day133.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 21 History 318 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$918
7 days−$1,776
14 days−$2,240
30 days−$2,347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $3,194 $3,480 +$286 (+9%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $1,314 $1,418 +$104 (+8%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1,114 $1,237 +$123 (+11%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,008 $1,160 +$152 (+15%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $551 $717 +$166 (+30%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $547 $428 −$119 (-22%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $262 $404 +$142 (+54%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $299 $324 +$25 (+8%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 −$0 (-0%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $331 $289 −$41 (-13%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $553 $271 −$282 (-51%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $109 $223 +$113 (+104%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 34¢ 48¢ $50 $70 +$19 (+38%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Down 39¢ 37¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-5%)
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $242 $35 −$207 (-86%)
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on March 31? Down 99¢ 50¢ $65 $33 −$32 (-50%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $34 $30 −$4 (-11%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Down 38¢ 19¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-51%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Yes 45¢ 12¢ $22 $6 −$17 (-74%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 27¢ 4¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 12 $184 +$8 +4%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $76 +$3 +4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $685 +$4 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $123 +$4 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$3 +6%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $104 +$4 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 11 $33 −$9 -28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $75 −$2 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 11? Jun 11 $716 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $237 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $352 +$29 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $250 $0 +0%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $774 $0 +0%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $411 −$8 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $9,448 +$24 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2,272 −$867 -38%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 11 $256 +$7 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $49 +$3 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 11 $264 −$151 -57%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $790 −$121 -15%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on June 12? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1,036 +$10 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $232 +$9 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $611 −$6 -1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 11? Jun 11 $79 −$2 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 11? Jun 11 $796 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 11? Jun 11 $260 +$2 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $110 −$6 -5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $88 +$5 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $277 +$14 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $337 +$21 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$2 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $125 $0 +0%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3,348 −$20 -1%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $3,341 −$26 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 11? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 12? Jun 10 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $98 −$1 -2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,281 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $228 +$9 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 10? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -90%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $531 −$32 -6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $214 +$11 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 70% −$1,238
other 28% −$986
politics 2% +$286
weather 0% −$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 41¢ $2 32m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 39¢ $40 35m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 38¢ $13 41m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 36¢ $12 43m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? SELL No 60¢ $22 47m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? SELL No 97¢ $135 48m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $19 48m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $10 48m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $22 48m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 33¢ $46 50m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $28 53m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 16¢ $15 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 20¢ $38 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $184 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 30¢ $43 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 33¢ $6 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 55¢ $23 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 33¢ $61 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 34¢ $2 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 33¢ $2 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 46¢ $215 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? SELL No 59¢ $118 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 45¢ $90 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 49¢ $234 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? BUY No 57¢ $114 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? SELL No 34¢ $14 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 62¢ $12 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 62¢ $12 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 45¢ $51 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 62¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -11.3% -19.7% 58% 8% -12.1%
≤30d 318 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 7% -10.8%
≤90d 318 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 7% -10.8%
all 318 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 7% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover133.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 7% -10.8%
10% -28.4% 3% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -35.3% 2% -27.2%
20% -41.6% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,570.08 · official $10,570.08 (match) · 3500 history records