Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

26 0x2658…fb0e other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$118 (+12%) realized +$123 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$142per market

Trades / day12.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+7.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+18.4%	+7.1%	75%	75%	+24.0%
≤30d	4	+18.4%	+7.1%	75%	75%	+24.0%
≤90d	4	+18.4%	+7.1%	75%	75%	+24.0%
all	4	+18.4%	+7.1%	75%	75%	+24.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.1%	75%	+24.0%
10%	-3.1%	75%	+12.1%
15%	-12.5%	75%	+1.3%
20%	-21.1%	50%	-8.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$71 vs −$51 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×4.15 per $1 lost it wins $4.15

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$545

Realized+$123

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$142

Trades / day12.1

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	45¢	46¢	$300	$303	+$3 (+1%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$125	$132	+$7 (+6%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$125	$109	−$16 (-12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$181	+$83	+46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$101	+$77	+76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	Jun 21	$101	+$53	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	9¢	$77	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	16¢	$77	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	45¢	$152	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	45¢	$51	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	45¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	15¢	$51	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$264	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$181	4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$178	23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	26¢	$51	24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$154	26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	65¢	$101	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $545.05 · official $545.05 (match) · 15 history records