Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:05:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x265c…198f sports 32 markets active 18h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$224 (+7%) realized +$156 · open +$68
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$389
14 days−$67
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$234
other 30% −$98
sports 18% +$80
crypto 4% +$68
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +84.2% +66.7% 82% 82% +74.4%
≤30d 22 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 50% -3.6%
≤90d 22 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 50% -3.6%
all 22 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 50% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 50% -3.6%
10% -11.6% 45% -12.9%
15% -20.2% 45% -21.3%
20% -28.0% 41% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$52 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 32
History coverage14d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 76¢ $84 $143 +$59 (+70%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $84 $94 +$10 (+12%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $84 $74 −$10 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $44 $53 +$9 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$124 +270%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$82 +135%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$26 +84%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$10 +57%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$79 +128%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 16 $85 −$8 -10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$140 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $142 −$140 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $141 +$61 +43%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,413 +$234 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL 99¢ $170 17h
Spread: France (-3.5) AND Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY $5 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 26¢ $46 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY 22¢ $31 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win o BUY 29¢ $10 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $43 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $143 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY $5 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $20 6d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 27¢ $19 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $20 6d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $20 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 81¢ $56 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $18 6d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 91¢ $140 6d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 6d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 22¢ $31 7d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $61 7d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $31 7d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 7d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria $5 7d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $61 7d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $85 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.80 · official $364.88 (match) · 65 history records