Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x265d…55b8 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate46%22W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 25% +$1
politics 12% +$2
sports 8% −$8
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 8% -9.4%
all 48 -0.5% -10.0% 46% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses22 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage475d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $74 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $74 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $7 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 05 $4 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? May 31 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $1 $0 +9%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 15 $1 $0 -34%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 11 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 08 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 06 $11 +$2 +13%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Charlotte vs. East Carolina Mar 04 $11 +$1 +14%
Will Sue Bird make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 02 $11 $0 +1%
Tulane vs. Tulsa Mar 01 $17 −$7 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $34 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $6 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $2 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $26 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $28 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $34 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $38 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $37 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $25 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $12 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $37 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $34 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records