Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x265d…c792 crypto 247 markets active 5d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$709 (-8%) realized −$709 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%142W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$853
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +4.7% -5.3% 59% 51% -11.6%
≤30d 37 +4.7% -5.3% 59% 51% -11.6%
≤90d 93 -0.5% -10.0% 56% 48% -19.6%
all 247 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 51% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 51% -18.0%
10% -16.5% 40% -25.8%
15% -24.5% 34% -33.0%
20% -31.9% 26% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$709
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses142 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage103d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$27 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $74 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 07 $97 −$25 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 07 $31 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 07 $89 −$52 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 07 $31 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 07 $31 −$17 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 07 $62 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 07 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 07 $31 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 07 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 07 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 06 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 06 $95 −$42 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 06 $62 +$13 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $73 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $60 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $17 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $68 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 925 history records