Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

26
0x265f…a448
other · 72 markets active 2d ago
2.0score
+$29,779 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29,821 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$426
Realized+$29,821
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses49 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 72
History coverage124d
Avg bet$2,039
Trades / day26.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 2 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$391
7 days−$302
14 days−$451
30 days−$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $358 $365 +$7 (+2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 28¢ 15¢ $62 $33 −$29 (-46%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+64%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 85¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? No 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025? No 57¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+75%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11? No 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? No 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? No 60¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+67%)
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? No 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+279%)
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27? No 93¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? No 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? No 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 12 $1 −$20 -2271%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Jun 12 $1 +$124 +13955%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Jun 12 $1 +$33 +3588%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 12 $1 −$12 -1252%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 12 $1 −$67 -11766%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Jun 12 $1 +$636 +92398%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11? Jun 12 $1 −$22 -2892%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 12 $1 +$601 +97155%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 12 $0 +$90 +20074%
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? Jun 12 $0 +$32 +125981%
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6? Jun 12 $0 +$706 +230916%
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -573%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 16 to September 23, Jun 12 $0 −$97 -177129%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 12 $0 −$21 -5145%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 12 $1 −$65 -11032%
Will Elon tweet between 200 and 219 times September 5–12? Jun 12 $0 +$164 +178756%
Will Elon Musk post 100-109 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$33 -166817%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 12 $0 −$1,671 -3474387%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$23 +2856%
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5? Jun 12 $0 −$136 -861588%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jun 12 $0 −$302 -561599%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 12 $0 −$85 -25159%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 12 $0 −$293 -243503%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jun 12 $0 +$867 +639323%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times? Jun 12 $0 +$73 +472792%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Jun 12 $0 −$310 -776987%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Jun 12 $1 +$17 +2599%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30–35 million views on day 1? Jun 12 $0 +$5 +325580%
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$94 -313090%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times August 22–August 29? Jun 12 $1 −$509 -82954%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$103 -107661%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Jun 12 $0 −$9 -182549%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Jun 12 $0 +$5 +50932%
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 1–August 8? Jun 12 $0 +$97 +295227%
Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11? Jun 12 $0 +$11 +16618%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jun 12 $0 −$25 -103827%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Jun 12 $0 −$40 -29037%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $0 −$200 -145881%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 25–May 2? Jun 12 $0 +$268 +603314%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jun 12 $0 +$3 +3031%
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12? Jun 12 $0 −$76 -28731%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1,901 +$44 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $220 −$106 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,485 +$195 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $267 −$146 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $527 +$77 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $168 −$162 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $106 +$209 +198%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $479 −$128 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,198 +$206 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$30,227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 44h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $594 44h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $38 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $52 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $86 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $141 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $307 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $327 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $282 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $69 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $57 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $220 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $676 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,243 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $755 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $164 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $569 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $33 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $891 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $152 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $31 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $34 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $35 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $108 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+332.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +798.4% +712.8% 48% 45% -3.4%
≤30d 48 +745.5% +665.0% 48% 46% -7.6%
≤90d 63 +587.5% +522.0% 44% 41% +11.6%
all 113 +377.8% +332.3% 43% 39% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +332.3% 39% +13.5%
10% +290.9% 35% +2.6%
15% ← realistic here +253.1% 32% -7.3%
20% +218.5% 29% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.80 · official $420.91 · 3500 history records