Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2660…8aa9 crypto 354 markets active 4d ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+2%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%162W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$30
weather 8% −$18
sports 1% −$11
other 1% −$17
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -12.3% -20.7% 29% 19% -19.3%
≤30d 71 -10.8% -19.3% 31% 17% -16.7%
≤90d 71 -10.8% -19.3% 31% 17% -16.7%
all 353 +10.0% -0.5% 46% 36% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 36% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 29% -19.0%
15% -18.7% 24% -26.9%
20% -26.7% 22% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses162 / 191
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)353 / 354
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 353 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +115%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Ilkley (Doubles): Harrison/Osborne vs Appleton/Pridankina Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -32%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -29%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -38%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -47%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $5 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -34%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -32%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -33%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -30%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$8 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$11 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $0 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 45¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $10 5d
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 98¢ $8 5d
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 60¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 5d
Ilkley (Doubles): Harrison/Osborne vs Appleton/Pridankina SELL Harrison/Osborne 56¢ $4 5d
Ilkley (Doubles): Harrison/Osborne vs Appleton/Pridankina BUY Harrison/Osborne 66¢ $5 5d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla SELL Oriol Roca Batalla 65¢ $5 5d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Oriol Roca Batalla 71¢ $5 5d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova BUY Guido Justo 59¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.90 (match) · 3500 history records