Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
26 0x2662…3f84 sports 404 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,699 (+2%) realized +$5,942 · open −$243
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%247W / 155L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$2,625est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,378
7 days−$7,564
14 days−$4,652
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$5,751
other 3% −$962
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -20.5% -28.1% 48% 48% -29.2%
≤30d 247 -0.8% -10.3% 59% 57% -9.5%
≤90d 402 +0.2% -9.3% 61% 60% -7.6%
all 402 +0.2% -9.3% 61% 60% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 60% -7.6%
10% -18.0% 55% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.9% 45% -24.5%
20% -33.2% 27% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$507) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$293 vs −$434 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$785
Realized+$5,942
Unrealized−$243
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses247 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$2,625
Open positions2
Markets (closed)402 / 404
History coverage51d
Avg bet$590
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs PlayTime 59¢ 60¢ $778 $784 +$6 (+1%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner PlayTime 20¢ 0¢ $250 $1 −$249 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 18 $1,007 −$92 -9%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $257 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $505 +$271 +54%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,276 −$750 -59%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $553 +$297 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $509 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $506 −$500 -99%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 18 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $502 +$215 +43%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $500 −$144 -29%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $256 −$105 -41%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $500 +$125 +25%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $507 +$282 +56%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $506 +$263 +52%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $527 +$461 +87%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $255 +$427 +168%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $504 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $507 +$402 +79%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $507 +$454 +90%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $504 +$204 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $27 −$27 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $504 −$500 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $507 +$248 +49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $505 −$501 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $510 +$90 +18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,000 +$449 +45%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $500 +$133 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $755 +$225 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $500 +$258 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $504 +$200 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $500 +$500 +100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $501 +$307 +61%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $503 +$335 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,753 −$227 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,351 −$1,254 -53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $505 +$276 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $360 −$358 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $507 +$405 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 54¢ $281 38m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 20¢ $256 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $86 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $13 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $16 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $146 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $27 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $16 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $25 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $16 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $25 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 62¢ $110 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $915 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 63¢ $506 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $257 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $776 5h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $255 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $255 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $510 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 67¢ $464 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $199 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $11 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $19 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $107 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $784.65 · official $488.17 · 1349 history records