Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2664…6fb2 crypto 842 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,102 (-7%) realized −$1,102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate80%673W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$87
other 19% +$51
sports 13% −$391
tech 5% −$696
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.7% -14.6% 85% 31% -9.3%
≤30d 26 -5.7% -14.6% 85% 31% -9.3%
≤90d 825 -10.9% -19.4% 80% 12% -12.6%
all 841 -11.1% -19.6% 80% 11% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 11% -16.3%
10% -27.3% 2% -24.3%
15% -34.3% 1% -31.6%
20% -40.7% 1% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses673 / 168
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)841 / 842
History coverage180d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $49 +$1 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $48 +$1 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $6 $0 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $36 +$1 +2%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $44 +$1 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $13 +$1 +9%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $9 +$1 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $41 +$1 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +75%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $33 +$2 +6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $18 +$2 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $18 +$2 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 06 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 06 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 06 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 06 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 06 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 05 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 05 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +11%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 05 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 05 $4 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 05 $4 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $5 15m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $49 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $48 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $36 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $6 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $44 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 32h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $10 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 91¢ $2 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 91¢ $11 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $9 38h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 39h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 43h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 93¢ $9 43h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $41 46h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $39 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $19 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $19 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $9 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.67 · official $4.67 (match) · 2022 history records