Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
26 0x2666…ade6 sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$92 (+0%) realized +$108 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%60W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$512
14 days−$729
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$448
other 18% +$456
crypto 7% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -16.2% -24.2% 41% 41% -5.3%
≤30d 133 -13.5% -21.7% 45% 45% -9.4%
≤90d 133 -13.5% -21.7% 45% 45% -9.4%
all 133 -13.5% -21.7% 45% 45% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 45% -9.4%
10% -29.2% 40% -18.1%
15% -36.0% 38% -26.0%
20% -42.3% 33% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$101 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses60 / 73
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage18d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina Ekaterina Yashina 54¢ 52¢ $367 $351 −$16 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $289 +$179 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $150 +$140 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $196 −$195 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $202 −$198 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $294 −$290 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $224 −$221 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$18 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $439 +$183 +42%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $208 −$103 -50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 17 $294 −$294 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $259 −$259 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $791 +$430 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $204 +$509 +249%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $109 +$78 +71%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $306 +$504 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $128 +$83 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $150 +$283 +188%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $147 +$121 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 13 $1,003 −$798 -80%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $283 +$113 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $118 +$68 +58%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $948 +$174 +18%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $577 +$368 +64%
Set 1 Winner: Shevchenko vs Sachko Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $379 +$295 +78%
ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson Jun 13 $76 +$67 +88%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $312 +$303 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $17 $0 -1%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Georgia leading at halftime? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$109 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Ekaterina Yashina 53¢ $101 46m
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Ekaterina Yashina 57¢ $200 46m
ITF Zhengzhou: Junhan Zhang vs Ekaterina Yashina BUY Ekaterina Yashina 49¢ $71 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $289 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $150 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $196 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $202 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $99 14h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $294 14h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $102 14h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $224 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $439 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,221 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $714 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $791 29h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $204 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $186 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $810 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $109 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $211 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $128 32h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $306 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $150 35h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $259 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $8 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $268 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $147 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.30 · official $351.30 (match) · 423 history records