Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

26 0x2667…74cf other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$2,691 (+15%) realized +$391 · open +$2,300

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +53% what you keep after slip

Net edge+53%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,987per market

Trades / day2.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$18,229now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+53.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+16.4%	+5.3%	100%	100%	+5.3%
≤30d	2	+69.4%	+53.2%	100%	100%	+96.0%
≤90d	2	+69.4%	+53.2%	100%	100%	+96.0%
all	2	+69.4%	+53.2%	100%	100%	+96.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+53.2%	100%	+96.0%
10%	+38.6%	50%	+77.2%
15%	+25.2%	50%	+60.1%
20%	+12.9%	50%	+44.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +117% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +69% · $-wt +117% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$309 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage

Net worth$18,229

Realized+$391

Unrealized+$2,300

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)2 / 9

History coverage38d

Avg bet$1,987

Trades / day2.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	15¢	$4,428	$7,177	+$2,749 (+62%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$5,195	$5,160	−$35 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	19¢	$2,870	$3,232	+$362 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$1,914	$1,582	−$332 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	7¢	$868	$624	−$244 (-28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	5¢	$474	$279	−$195 (-41%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$181	$177	−$4 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 22	$29	+$5	+16%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 07	$502	+$614	+122%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$201	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$403	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	7¢	$602	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$46	2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$33	2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$62	10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$257	10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$308	10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$411	10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$549	12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$641	12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$882	12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1,269	12d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1,509	12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	16d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	16d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$21	16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$62	16d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$82	16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$144	16d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$267	16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$329	16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$34	18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	20d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$31	20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$72	20d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,229.15 · official $18,229.15 (match) · 114 history records