Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2668…9555 crypto 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,902 (-18%) realized −$2,847 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%59W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,087
7 days+$2,262
14 days−$1,594
30 days−$2,102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$503
sports 22% −$3
crypto 19% −$1,095
world 2% −$361
politics 2% −$161
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +56.8% +41.9% 67% 58% +60.6%
≤30d 41 -7.4% -16.2% 37% 34% -32.6%
≤90d 149 -20.3% -27.9% 28% 26% -36.0%
all 207 -14.1% -22.3% 29% 28% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 28% -15.6%
10% -29.7% 27% -23.7%
15% -36.5% 25% -31.0%
20% -42.7% 24% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$69 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,847
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses59 / 148
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 208
History coverage574d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $601 +$889 +148%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $343 +$1,015 +296%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $214 +$73 +34%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $270 +$90 +33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,003 +$84 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$89 +291%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 −$67 -97%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $58 −$57 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $102 +$201 +198%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$74 +73%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,686 −$3,630 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $9 −$9 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $62 −$61 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $101 +$90 +88%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $23 +$33 +139%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $67 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 01 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $136 −$129 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $91 +$186 +204%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $47 −$8 -18%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 01 $32 +$81 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 01 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 01 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 01 $21 −$10 -48%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $265 −$124 -47%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $42 −$22 -54%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $484 −$483 -100%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 14 $26 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 03 $119 +$146 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 03 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 03 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 03 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 03 $42 −$40 -94%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner May 03 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $21 +$232 +1091%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $57 15m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $131 16m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 19m
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 19m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,490 20m
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,358 1h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $510 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 4h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 4h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $288 4h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 5h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $75 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $360 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,087 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 75¢ $375 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $400 9h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $71 9h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $199 9h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 26h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $58 30h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $176 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 801 history records