Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2669…df74 sports 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%21W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% $0
other 20% −$1
politics 19% −$1
crypto 12% −$2
world 7% −$2
economics 6% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.3%
all 145 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses21 / 124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage159d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $39 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $110 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 14 $277 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 14 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $74 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 13 $42 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 11 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $48 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $45 11d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $45 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $38 19d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $39 20d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $35 27d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $35 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $36 35d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 125d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 125d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $43 125d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $43 125d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 125d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 96¢ $42 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 96¢ $42 125d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $48 125d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $48 125d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 125d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 125d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 97¢ $43 125d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 97¢ $43 125d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $48 125d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 125d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $43 125d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $43 125d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 125d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 125d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $44 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.24 · official $45.24 (match) · 518 history records