Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x266c…6963 sports 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$293 (-15%) realized −$287 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%50W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$363
14 days−$309
30 days−$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$227
crypto 20% −$45
other 9% −$77
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -24.4% -31.6% 37% 37% -37.0%
≤30d 111 -16.0% -24.0% 40% 40% -26.0%
≤90d 129 -17.0% -24.9% 39% 39% -27.2%
all 129 -17.0% -24.9% 39% 39% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 39% -27.2%
10% -32.1% 38% -34.2%
15% -38.6% 34% -40.5%
20% -44.6% 30% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$287
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses50 / 79
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)129 / 137
History coverage37d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 57¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+31%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 34¢ $32 $20 −$12 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$11 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $38 −$21 -56%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$2 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $29 +$4 +14%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: France O Jun 23 $8 +$30 +362%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $14 +$26 +188%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 −$10 -72%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $19 −$9 -48%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$14 +134%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $14 +$14 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $13 +$7 +50%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $13 +$10 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $18 24m
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $32 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.59 · official $43.60 (match) · 300 history records