Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
26 0x266c…e7fa crypto 1661 markets active 19h ago coverage 116d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate92%1534W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$5
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
sports 0% +$1
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 272 +1.7% -8.0% 91% 36% -7.8%
≤30d 337 +0.5% -9.1% 91% 34% -8.9%
≤90d 1031 +0.8% -8.8% 93% 17% -8.8%
all 1662 +0.5% -9.0% 92% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 12% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1534 / 128
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1662 / 1661
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1662 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 91¢ $2 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.18 · official $2.18 (match) · 3500 history records