Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x266f…3eed sports 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%10W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$3
sports 24% −$3
other 15% −$1
crypto 12% $0
economics 6% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 178 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses10 / 168
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage173d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 18 $34 +$1 +3%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $124 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $280 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $185 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $253 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $149 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $36 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $244 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $93 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 19 $58 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $138 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $40 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $36 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $37 13d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 26d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $35 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $34 42d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $35 123d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $35 123d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $42 123d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $42 123d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $42 123d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $42 123d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $37 123d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $37 123d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $38 123d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $38 123d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $11 123d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $30 123d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $11 123d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 123d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $40 123d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $2 123d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $39 123d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $41 123d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $37 123d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $37 123d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $41 123d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $41 123d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $42 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.26 · official $37.26 (match) · 602 history records