Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2671…5cb0 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$38
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$32
politics 26% −$18
crypto 13% −$21
sports 10% −$2
culture 4% −$6
finance 4% −$2
world 4% −$6
economics 4% −$3
tech 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 13% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 67 -1.0% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 113 -0.8% -10.2% 12% 0% -10.1%
all 128 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 110
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage99d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $55 −$1 -3%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $158 −$5 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $275 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $97 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $51 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 12 $125 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $421 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $267 −$3 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 10 $66 −$9 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 09 $50 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $54 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 07 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $48 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $295 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 05 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $616 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $59 −$1 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $39 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $63 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $113 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $46 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $299 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 8h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $38 9h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $38 14h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $53 15h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $54 21h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $62 21h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $63 28h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $49 28h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $50 36h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $53 37h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $55 43h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 43h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $41 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $41 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $40 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $41 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $67 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $67 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $44 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $40 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $6 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $34 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.44 · official $50.44 (match) · 478 history records