Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

26 0x2675…b182 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$42

7 days−$22

14 days−$22

30 days−$22

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-8.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-5.7%	-14.6%	71%	43%	-14.8%
≤30d	14	-5.7%	-14.6%	71%	43%	-14.8%
≤90d	14	-5.7%	-14.6%	71%	43%	-14.8%
all	17	+0.7%	-8.9%	65%	41%	-19.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.9%	41%	-19.8%
10%	-17.6%	29%	-27.5%
15%	-25.6%	29%	-34.5%
20%	-32.9%	24%	-40.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late -19% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.67 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage213d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	64¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 20	$82	−$75	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 20	$76	+$4	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Jun 20	$86	−$5	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 20	$10	+$1	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 20	$25	+$1	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 20	$64	+$32	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$34	+$17	+50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 16	$30	−$25	-82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$19	+72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$2	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$3	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 16	$10	+$10	+93%
Will Meta (META) close at $590-$600 on the final day of trading of the	Nov 22	$4	+$12	+284%
Will Meta (META) close at <$590 on the final day of trading of the wee	Nov 21	$20	−$19	-93%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?	Nov 20	$20	−$20	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$25	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$25	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Up	46¢	$6	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$5	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Down	91¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	SELL Down	78¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$78	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	SELL Up	60¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Up	36¢	$4	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$67	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	39¢	$4	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 67 history records