Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x267a…8881 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$5
other 9% −$7
politics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 1% −$2
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.1% 20% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 31% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 31% 0% -8.8%
all 33 -8.7% -17.4% 36% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -25.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage475d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $58 +$5 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $95 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $44 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 -10%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $77 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $125 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +7%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $8 $0 +3%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will another racer win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 22 $13 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 21? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portnoy launch $greed3 in February? Mar 21 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $53 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $53 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $53 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $52 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $52 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $53 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $13 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $26 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $42 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $45 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $44 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $19 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records