Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

26 0x267b…05de other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$300 (+17%) realized +$300 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$355per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 131d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-5.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+30.8%	+18.3%	75%	75%	+16.4%
≤30d	4	+30.8%	+18.3%	75%	75%	+16.4%
≤90d	4	+30.8%	+18.3%	75%	75%	+16.4%
all	5	+4.6%	-5.3%	60%	60%	+15.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.3%	60%	+15.0%
10%	-14.4%	40%	+4.0%
15%	-22.7%	40%	-6.1%
20%	-30.2%	40%	-15.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$190 vs −$44 · ×4.28 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.42 per $1 lost it wins $6.42

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$300

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)5 / 5

History coverage131d

Avg bet$355

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 5 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$305	−$67	-22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$741	+$97	+13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$436	+$306	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$269	+$166	+62%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100	Feb 09	$22	−$22	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	38¢	$238	16m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$305	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$839	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$741	3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$742	4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1	6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$435	6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$435	7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$269	10h
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100	BUY Yes	33¢	$22	130d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records