Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x267c…5bfd sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$449 (-24%) realized −$449 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%24W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$278
14 days−$464
30 days−$464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$462
other 1% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -27.1% -34.0% 31% 31% -36.5%
≤30d 87 -30.2% -36.8% 28% 28% -33.1%
≤90d 87 -30.2% -36.8% 28% 28% -33.1%
all 87 -30.2% -36.8% 28% 28% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 28% -33.1%
10% -42.9% 26% -39.5%
15% -48.4% 25% -45.3%
20% -53.5% 22% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$449
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses24 / 63
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage14d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 73¢ 73¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$16 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $31 −$5 -16%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $39 −$39 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $35 −$8 -24%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$19 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$6 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $7 +$12 +172%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $62 −$10 -16%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $37 −$37 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $28 +$25 +90%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $29 +$17 +60%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $29 +$17 +60%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 +$32 +68%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $13 +$29 +216%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21 +$22 +105%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 +$28 +168%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$28 +188%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 −$17 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$11 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $23 −$22 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $29 +$12 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$14 +48%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $16 +$11 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $7 +$16 +237%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eur Jun 10 $15 +$11 +70%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $12 +$12 +97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $19 +$14 +73%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $8 +$11 +140%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 73¢ $43 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 31¢ $17 2d
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 74¢ $39 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 17¢ $11 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 27¢ $10 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 27¢ $10 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 26¢ $10 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 24¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 59¢ $31 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 23¢ $16 3d
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 50¢ $26 3d
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 64¢ $35 3d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport - Map 1 Winner BUY fnatic 51¢ $27 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 38¢ $20 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $20 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 29¢ $7 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 34¢ $9 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 77¢ $41 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $10 4d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality - Game 1 Winner BUY ONIC 66¢ $32 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 36¢ $7 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 39¢ $16 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $29 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $34 5d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 57¢ $35 5d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY Karmine Corp Blue 70¢ $37 5d
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le BUY FaZe Vegas 52¢ $28 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 24¢ $13 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 75¢ $39 5d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 28¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.77 · official $42.77 (match) · 148 history records