Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x267d…5019 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$115
14 days−$193
30 days−$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$266
sports 24% +$80
crypto 1% −$3
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -24.1% -31.3% 28% 25% -14.1%
≤30d 49 -26.2% -33.3% 27% 24% -14.9%
≤90d 49 -26.2% -33.3% 27% 24% -14.9%
all 49 -26.2% -33.3% 27% 24% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 24% -14.9%
10% -39.7% 22% -23.0%
15% -45.5% 22% -30.5%
20% -50.8% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$24 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage10d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $147 $148 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$25 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $190 −$4 -2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $29 −$17 -59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 −$17 -36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 −$19 -76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$3 -13%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $25 −$10 -40%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $41 +$28 +68%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $45 +$26 +57%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $245 +$120 +49%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $81 +$14 +17%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $7 −$5 -65%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $7 −$5 -75%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $89 −$13 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $149 −$48 -32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $77 −$22 -29%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $61 −$23 -38%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $66 −$6 -10%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $91 +$51 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $161 +$12 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 +$28 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$33 +46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $35 −$6 -17%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 −$9 -28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 +$59 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $143 −$115 -81%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$44 -81%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$53 -91%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14 Jun 14 $26 −$3 -13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $45 −$4 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $49 +$48 +99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$12 -78%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -81%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $238 +$95 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$4 -8%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $95 +$51 +54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $98 −$82 -84%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $114 −$55 -48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $66 +$104 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 45¢ $76 55m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 58¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 81¢ $185 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 18¢ $12 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $29 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 45¢ $29 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $190 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 14¢ $6 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $45 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 38¢ $15 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 92¢ $68 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 61¢ $25 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $149 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $36 12h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $45 16h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $41 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $55 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 70¢ $56 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $54 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $35 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 76¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.87 · official $207.87 (match) · 131 history records