Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2682…50b6 crypto 1757 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1739W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$14
14 days−$16
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$9
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 248 -2.8% -12.0% 96% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 852 -0.9% -10.4% 98% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 1765 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -10.2%
all 1765 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 0% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1739 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1765 / 1757
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1765 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $2 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 36h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 38h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.03 · official $8.03 (match) · 3500 history records