Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x2684…977f politics 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$22
other 13% −$2
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
world 1% −$3
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 104 -13.2% -21.5% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -29.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -35.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -42.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage666d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 27 $51 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $52 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Mar 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by January 31? Feb 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will After the Hunt win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy A Jan 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Chris Paul lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anderlecht win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tyus Jones lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
OpenSea blocks US users in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chris Olave be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Caleb Williams win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Moritz Wagner win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
No Ethereum all time high in 2024? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
180-199 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? Dec 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC south? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $51 16h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 16d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 16d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $51 29d
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $51 29d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 39d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 39d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $51 46d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $51 46d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 51d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 51d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $52 76d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $52 76d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 86d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 87d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 92d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 93d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 101d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 102d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 102d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 103d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $52 105d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $52 106d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 107d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 108d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $52 112d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records